India, a geographically diverse and climatically complex nation, has long faced challenges in weather prediction. From monsoonal rains and cyclones to droughts and heatwaves, the country requires a robust forecasting system to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events. In recent years, India has made significant strides in improving its weather prediction capabilities, notably with the development and deployment of a High-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting System.
This system, spearheaded by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and developed in collaboration with other national scientific agencies like the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), represents a major leap in forecasting accuracy and preparedness.
Need for a High-Resolution System
India has experienced a growing number of extreme weather events attributed to climate change, including devastating cyclones such as Fani, Amphan, and Tauktae, as well as urban floods in cities like Chennai in 2015 and Mumbai in 2021. Additionally, the country continues to grapple with severe heatwaves, cold waves, and flash floods, particularly in the Himalayan region. These events often result in the loss of lives and extensive economic damage. Accurate and timely forecasts are crucial for authorities to initiate evacuations, manage emergency resources, and issue early warnings that can save lives and reduce losses.
Agriculture remains a critical sector in India, supporting a large portion of the population. Its heavy dependency on weather, especially the monsoon, makes reliable forecasts essential for improving crop planning, optimizing yields, managing pest outbreaks, and scheduling irrigation effectively. Accurate weather information also plays a key role in drought management, helping farmers and policymakers make informed decisions.
In urban areas, rapid population growth and unplanned development have increased the vulnerability of cities to climate-related risks. A high-resolution forecasting system can support better urban planning by enabling the design of climate-resilient infrastructure, enhancing drainage systems, and informing disaster risk reduction strategies aimed at safeguarding lives and property.
/*Overview of the High-Resolution Global Forecasting System*/
India’s high-resolution global weather forecasting system is grounded in an advanced Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. At the core of this system lies the Global Forecast System (GFS), which has been adapted and customized to better suit India’s unique climatic conditions and topography. The NWP model simulates atmospheric behavior using complex mathematical equations derived from fundamental laws of physics. It takes in vast amounts of observational data, including temperature, wind speed and direction, humidity, pressure, and solar radiation. These inputs are processed using powerful supercomputers to generate detailed simulations of atmospheric conditions across a three-dimensional grid that spans the entire globe.
A significant advancement in the system is the enhancement of model resolution to 12 kilometers. This upgrade allows for the capture of finer-scale atmospheric phenomena, improving the simulation of localized weather events such as thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This is particularly valuable for forecasting in areas with complex terrains like the Himalayas, where small-scale variations can significantly influence weather patterns.
/*Challenges and Limitations*/
Despite substantial progress, the forecasting system still faces several challenges. One of the major hurdles is the lack of observational data in remote regions, especially in the Himalayas and Northeastern India, which hampers accurate modeling and prediction. The complex topography of the country, including mountains and coastlines, presents additional difficulties in accurately simulating weather patterns at smaller scales.
Another critical issue is the communication of forecast uncertainty. While scientific models generate probabilistic forecasts, these need to be clearly and effectively conveyed to non-expert users. Misinterpretation or overconfidence in forecasts can lead to poor decision-making, especially in emergency scenarios. Furthermore, last-mile connectivity remains a persistent challenge. Reaching vulnerable populations in remote or underserved areas with timely and actionable weather information is difficult, despite the use of mobile and radio outreach programs.
/*Future Directions*/
India continues to invest in the development of more advanced weather forecasting capabilities. Plans are in place to operationalize forecasting models with resolutions of 7 kilometers and 3 kilometers, which would significantly improve the precision of regional and city-level forecasts. This would be especially useful for urban planning, agriculture, and localized disaster preparedness.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are also being integrated into the forecasting workflow. These technologies are being applied to recognize patterns in satellite data, correct biases in model outputs, and enhance nowcasting techniques, which are crucial for short-term, localized weather predictions.
On the international front, India actively collaborates with global meteorological organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), UK Met Office, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). These partnerships facilitate the exchange of data, advancement of climate research, and development of early warning systems that benefit from shared expertise and resources.
India is also focusing on the creation of integrated early warning systems that unify forecasts across various sectors including floods, heatwaves, and pollution. This approach aims to establish a multi-hazard early warning platform that can provide comprehensive, coordinated alerts to support disaster preparedness and response.
India’s High-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting System marks a transformative step in modernizing the country’s meteorological services. By leveraging cutting-edge science, high-performance computing, and an expanding dissemination network, India has significantly enhanced its capacity to predict and respond to extreme weather events. Although challenges such as data gaps and communication hurdles persist, continued investment in technology, international collaboration, and outreach strategies will ensure that the nation is better equipped to face future climate uncertainties. This forecasting system serves as a model for other developing countries seeking to bolster climate resilience through scientific innovation.