As Israel intensifies assassination threats, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has named supposedly three senior clerics as possible successors. The action, made public while he's in hiding in a bunker, surprisingly excludes his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, fueling succession and regime stability rumors.The New York Times broke the news, citing three unidentified Iranian officials familiar with the matter and Western diplomatic sources.
/*Bunker Strategy and Successor Shortlist*/
As mounting Israeli attacks which recently claimed some of Iran's most senior IRGC commanders, Khamenei himself has gone into hiding, reportedly in the safety of a bunker in Tehran's Lavizan district. Contact has been restricted to secure messengers via one aide. In the meantime, he presented a shortlist of three faithful clerics to the Assembly of Experts covertly, allowing for rapid leadership transition in the event of his demise.
/*Son Excluded: Denying Dynastic Rule*/
The omission of Mojtaba Khamenei, given his influence and IRGC ties suggests Ayatollah's desire to avoid dynastic spectacles. This demonstrates a strategic choice, The New York Times and Hindustan Times report: preserving institutional legitimacy over familial legacy. Analysts suggest that this is intended to help secure broader clerical backing and prevent factionalism.
/*Targets and Tensions: Israeli Strikes Raise Stakes*/
The Israeli military has bombed Iranian nuclear and military targets, killing commanders like Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh and more recently, Saeed Izadi, Behnam Shahriari, and Amin Pour Joudaki, among other senior IRGC commanders. The bombing has added to regime tension, leading to increased bunker procedures and contingency arrangements. Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly advocated for the ouster of Khamenei, though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has implicitly cautioned his ministers about public statements on such sensitive matters, while the US stance on directly targeting Khamenei remains ambiguous, with past reports of the US having vetoed such plans.
/*Consequences for Iran's Power Dynamics*/
Khamenei’s pre-selection disrupts the typical, months-long Assembly of Experts process, marking a shift toward securitized, wartime governance. Analysts like Vali Nasr argue this strategy aims to ensure continuity and prevent a power vacuum should he be killed. However, it may also deepen internal rifts within Iran’s clerical and military hierarchies.
/*Looking Ahead: Succession, Conflict and Stability*/
Leadership, having anticipated the worst-case scenario, Iran anticipates further Israeli strikes. The shortlist's contents are not announced, fuelling speculation. The Assembly of Experts must be ready to act fast, perhaps within days of an assassination. Iran is becoming an increasingly risky terrain, with internal cohesion and succession now tied to foreign conflict, say international observers.